It’s a lot of fun to give people predictions and have them turn out to be correct.
Sometimes.In 2006, before anyone else believed it, I predicted and Rush Limbaugh read my prediction on his show the following morning, that Barack Obama would be President in 2009.
Didn’t like being right on that one but seeing it all happen before it happened still have a shiver down me leg.
Last night was much more enjoyable.
More than a dozen times going into last night’s Iowa Caucus I was asked what I thought would happen.
I never believed the opinion polls that had Trump at 31% the day of the caucuses. Nevertheless everybody from Brit Hume, to Larry Kudlow, to Frank Luntz all predicted Trump had delivered the goods and was taking home the win.Luntz even said so after hitting the ground in Iowa. And on my friend Mike Gallagher’s show predicted a late night, a close count, and likely a Trump win.
My very dear driend Dr Gina Loudon likewise also told me she expected a tight race and a late night.
I never actually believed it was all that close.
I predicted Cruz would win by around 5%, and that Trump would fade and Rubio surge and battle for 2nd place.
In reality Cruz won by 4% and Trump/Rubio had less than a percentage point between them.In the aftermath it was obvious that Trump had been humbled, Rubio was inspired, and Cruz relieved. All were exactly appropriate reactions for how the biggest Iowa caucus in their history turned out.
There is also one other resounding message that came from the Iowa results.
THE ESTABLISHMENT GOT CRUSHED!
There is some debate about “who” IS the establishment. Everyone agrees Bush, Christie, Kasich are all “insiders.”
I would also argue Donald J Trump is as well. How else can you interpret his history of paying off politicians, hiring lobbyists, ginning the game of eminent domain, and in general having no political or moral compass until he declared as a candidate for President?My theory is very much replicated in the endorsements of Bob Dole, and former Mitt Romney and John McCain staffers, etc.
So for my purposes I’ll include Trumps numbers in the following tally as “establishment” votes.
Trump, Bush, Christie, Kasich score 59,000+.
The non-establishment is made up of Tea Party, First Timers, and the Grassroots outcasts:
Cruz, Rubio, Paul are the Tea Partiers.Carson and Fiorina are the first timers.
Huckabee and Santorum are the grassroots outcasts.
The anti-establishment vote score 129,000+.
IF you include Trump as anti-establishment the score is 13,000 to 155,000+.
Compare this singular unified message that the voters of Iowa are sending to the heavy handed hi-jinx and coin-flips of the other side, and this bodes very well for not just a winning GOP ticket come November, but an excited one, that has passion, and a base that’s ready to go to work for them to win!Good winds are a blowing…