My analyst hat on for a moment: I predicted a Trump primary win months ago. (Original prediction: whoever takes South Carolina would win the nomination.)
As the election has gone by he’s limped along.In my non-analyst time I’m supporting almost any option but him–in the primary–because I don’t like people that generally comport themselves the way he does. As the campaign has toiled longer the less tolerable his actions have become.
But as an analyst there are some genuine weaknesses that his team have not yet been able to overcome and when you combine that with how slowly it has taken him to barely pass the halfway point in the attempt at delegates–if I were advising Trump 2016–I’d insist we need to address.
1. Crossovers aren’t real. Trump is consistently touting that he’s bringing new people out to rallies and to a lesser degree to the polls. This is true. But in head to head polling against the two Democratic candidates in one to one match-ups there has been zero movement. And in some cases a loss of territory. On the day before Utah, The Desert News released a poll wherein they *nailed* the exact predictor for the primary last night. They got the order of finish and the percentages pretty close. Scary close. So this means they had great accuracy in the execution of the poll. Now mind you this poll was released on March 20, 2016. So in relationship to this writing it is one of the most up-to-date snapshots captured of the electorate. And nailing with exact specificity of how the vote then turned out the next day–it is done with sobriety and accuracy. In that poll, questions were asked about head to head match-ups. Trump (again) lost to both Hillary and Bernie. Meaning he may have some crossovers turning out for him. But when asked about him in a general election match-up they are pulling the lever for Hillary or Bernie. This demonstrates that the crossovers aren’t real. They are plants. Plants most likely intending to attempt to pick the most beatable GOP candidate in the race.
2. Unity in the base: Assuming that Trump has difficulty reaching 1237 delegates, the convention will go to multiple ballots. It is required to by the rules. On the second ballot 82% of the delegates become unattached. And on the third 100% of them are free to vote how they choose. At this point they have a difficult job to do. As the democratically elected delegates it becomes their job to get one of the three candidates to 1237. Arguments can be made currently that hurt Trump in terms of being “able to win” in the general election. Losing states like Utah will work against him. But so will his inability to secure (thus far any majorities in his election wins.) If I’m advising Trump I’d be attempting to SOON begin trying to get a majority in a state so that we can say we brought people together. Right now Ted Cruz has put together majorities in 3 states, some in states where Donald currently will lose in the general–and Republicans can not afford to lose a single state that they normally carry. They need to hang on to those and expand the map. Trump needs to moderate his tone, and attempt more unifying messaging in order to gain the broad based support to win–especially if he lacks the votes going into the convention. Cruz is showing he can bring people together. Trump isn’t and that bodes poorly.
Having said that–I’m not a Trump supporter–I don’t really want his team to take my advice.But if I were on his team I’d be losing sleep over what needed to be done to fix these issues given my candidate has the personality that Trump does.
I don’t even that sucker’s job!