There will no doubt be more than a few questions about why I feel so strongly that President Trump will win an honest and potentially overwhelming victory on 11/3.
In the release of this my third map of the 2020 election cycle, there will be some changes that are noteworthy.But let me preface all of these by saying this. According to those who work in the internal polling operations of BOTH campaigns, people are saying the identical things. The Biden people “believe” that “every state is in play.” They believe Texas, Florida, and even Kansas are possibilities for the former Vice President. The Trump people tell me that California and New York while they certainly appear to be outside the margin of error for most polls, are closer than they “should” be.
It strikes me too that those states don’t need to be “won” for Trump’s aggressive campaign to have been worth it. California and New York could contribute 10-12 congressional seats of the 17 or so needed to retake the house, mix in the possibility of 3-4 from New Jersey and you’re starting to get very close.
Unlike any election in the modern era, turnout will matter more for this election than ever before. Advantage in new voter registration (especially in battleground states) appears to advantage Trump.
That Biden has gone underground this entire week, while #HuntersLaptop continues to be discussed, and now the attempt to squelch the discovery of it by the establishment media and big tech has only added to the effectiveness of the Trump narrative that “he’s the one fighting for you, so they are coming for him.”
A couple of final notes. We will release another map a week from today, and another one on the day of the election. Our final “prediction” will come in that final election day map. There will only be red or blue on that map. This one and the next will show shades to indicate momentum or strength.On that note, on this map, please note that if he holds only the dark red we’ve selected here, the President wins. You will note that only the dark red also drops a state he won in 2016. And even if he drops Pennsylvania–which we have as a dark red currently, he could still win with a pick up in Michigan OR Arizona individually, or by picking off Nevada/Minnesota/New Hampshire in multiple combinations.
We will have more to say about election night combinations next week. There are NUMEROUS options to discuss, but if he takes the map as straight red vs. blue today he racks up more states, more electoral college delegates, and likely wins the popular vote. 14 days left.