South Carolina’s Surprise!

On the night that Donald Trump won New Hampshire the most important poll that could be taken was one he flatly denies exists. 

Trump, “We don’t do internal polling.”

Whatever…

He does and has and will. 

But on election night in New Hampshire he was at a whopping 44% in the internal Trump polls.

As of Tuesday of this week sources tell me that number was 28% and had not yet bottomed out.

Now the public polls–which have curiously the same problem in South Carolina that they had in Iowa–were all lagging behind the internals at Team Trump. 

But they did show something fairly amazing.

They all began to drop–just like in Iowa.

39 became 37 became 34 became 31.

Until this morning when the Wall Street Journal/NBC for the second day in a row revealed a polling out come that documented the Trump free fall. And their number on their most up-to-date South Carolina poll?

28%!

The number that the Trump forces knew about three days before.

Students of political science learn early on in watching elections that the polls may or may not get it right. A lot depends on how they are set up, targeted, modeled and understood.

In Iowa the polls consistently predicted larger than conceivable turnouts. They projected 200-300,000 caucus goers. The previous all time record was somewhere in the 130,000 area, and while Iowa turned out massive turnout, the final number was near 160,000. They also under polled evangelicals. Considerably. So Iowa turned out to be a surprise.

In South Carolina the polls are predicting larger than conceivable turnout models 1.4-2.2 million in some of them. I believe 700,000 would set a new record. They are also again vastly under counting evangelical turnout. By maybe as much as 11%.

This is why students of politics shouldn’t be paying attention to final percentages in final polls but rather that should be measuring momentum.

Trump forces don’t want to hear this. But Donald has been in free fall since New Hampshire. His erratic self-damning temper tantrum at the South Carolina debate where he espoused Code Pink, re-embraced Planned Parenthood, and attacked President Bush for attacking Iraq in 2003, when he himself had voiced support for the invasion in September of 2002 all exposed an irrational inability to deal with cognitive dissonance (of being wrong). And this added to the free fall.

Trump’s self-inflicted wounds in South Carolina, much like his erratic behavior of skipping the Iowa debate and dissing the GOP voters, are about to unleash a repeat disappointment to the Trump supporters.

If you study the newest NBC & FOX polls–one conservative and one liberal news outlets (not really but that’s how the activists see them) there is a similar issue of momentum occurring for a candidate to the positive.

  
And it just so happens to be occurring in the most undercounted polling demographic: Evangelicals.

Note that since December Trump’s number has been flagging. But since he was the national polling front runner he should have been out front in December. Then Iowa and New Hampshire happened and he was riding a big victory into South Carolina.

But what has actually happened?

Ted Cruz took the big win in Iowa and outperformed again in New Hampshire.

Now note not the number but the direction of Cruz’s numbers in the evangelical chart above.

Trump is minus 3, Cruz is +8.

Meaning what?

Cruz’s momentum has more than twice the intensity in the most undercounted demographic as does the free fall of Trump.

And things fall easier than they climb.

Trump has seen his internals on this for a while. He of course will blame it on others.

But Saturday is going to be an unhappy night for him. Because even if he wins it will be closer than he ever imagined when he gave his victory speech in New Hampshire. 

And I don’t think he is going to win.

More Polls:

   
  

 

America should be GOOD! Not “Great!”

Goodness has been a hard thing to see in the election of 2016.

Most of the reason is because we haven’t demanded it from the candidates.

The two front-runners of each party have lied to the voters repeatedly. Pretty much about everything, every day, every time.

Couple that with the entire “Make America GREAT Again” theme and a major deception is being played out. “Winning” has become the priority, but we have replaced what winning used to mean with more or less “getting our way.”

As I am in the midst of raising sons my thoughts quickly revert in these moments to what I want my boys to take away from this moment in history.

Is it the picture of a man telling his political opponents or his global competitors to go “fxxx” themselves? Is it to follow a man who said as recently as Saturday night that the number one abortionist in America (384,000 abortions annually that we paid $1600 apiece for as taxpayers) does “wonderful things?”

What do I want my sons to take away from the election?

Is it that it’s ok to lie to the American people about building a wall when he already knows he will not build it and that Mexico will never pay for it? Is it ok to lie about it because as he points out in his book The Art Of The Deal, every negotiation has to start out with something so fantastic and huge that no one has the strength to call you out on it?

Our founders, many of whom I doubt Donald Trump has ever read much less taken to heart talked at length about America’s greatness being tied to her willingness to use her financial and military strength to also be GOOD!

Morally good…

When no one else will…

The video above details exactly what they looks like.

Please watch.

Please consider!

Time To Tell Trumpers The Truth

Many Trump-protectors (think pocket protectors with far more foul language) have been criticizing those who have attempted to be objective about the Presidential primary thus far as being those who favor “circular fire” within the GOP camp.

Perhaps it would be far more honest and somewhat fairly obvious to the watching world if we made mention that the biggest supplier of circular fire in the GOP primary to date has come from one Donald J. Trump.

The world’s most cravenly hungry abuser of eminent domain has set his gaze on every other Republican in the race with a desire to punish them and put them in their place.

He has lied, flip-flopped, and betrayed the sincere ugliness of his inner self in doing so.

His perverse desire to not just win the nomination but to seemingly injure every person who honestly cites his record has a sickness and pathology to it. A fellow republican brings up the fact that he himself has advocated for single-payer healthcare, and instead of refuting the observation, Trump makes public some oblique reference to the person’s childhood. (Remember that distasteful public display regarding Dr. Ben Carson and a belt buckle?)

It is ugly, and unwinsome.

Trump supporters justify staying “on his good side” for various reasons. Prominent former conservatives have sold their soul to sell their book on illegal immigration. Former tea-party champions do so to make a burst into the campaign trail. And other do so to perhaps secure an enormous donation for their university or mega-church.

Other supporters have read Trump’s newest book and come away with the impression that Trump is super man who will bend the known universe to his will. I understand this group of supporters because they want America to be strong and are tired of abject capitulation that the current White House exhibits without end.

One more strain of supporters I actually feel badly for. They have been completely co-opted by the most effective marketer to have ever run for President.

In Trump’s much-bragged-about Art Of The Deal he  not only details his often previously bragged about immoral bedding habits, but his strategy of how to close the hard to close deals.

A simple idea of which is – lob a starting point that you know you will never fulfill, but make it so big that the people you are competing against in the effort have no ability to counter. Once they’re back on their heels you can finally tell them what your real offer is.

This idea has played on people’s fears in the election of 2016. Trump has outright promised something he knows he will never deliver.

This tactic is the most sinister of the liberal Trump’s machinations. For it is exactly how liberal democrats campaign. They con the lowest low-information voters available. They get them all worked up. They make sweeping promises, with almost zero details, then when elected, they bait and switch for something else.

When you think about it, what do ANY of us actually know about Trump’s actual plans for once he’s in office? We’ve seen no specifics. “Winning again, and being great again,” is not a policy plan.

Last excuse that previously level-headed conservatives continue to say to me is, “Kevin we just have to win in 2016.”

They say this as though Trump is the only top tier GOP candidate who outpolls Hillary and Bernie.

The inverse is actually true. Cruz and Rubio both beat Hillary head to head and Trump is the one who loses to her.

So when GOP voters chide you for circular fire (for just honestly pointing out his desire to expand Obamacare to single-payer, or being Planned Parenthood’s “man” in 2015, or knowing he will not “build a wall” no matter how many times he claims to) remind them that he fires on more Republicans than the rest of the field combined. Because this isn’t about America this is about him.

When Trump supporters claim he’s anti-establishment, ask them how. Then remind them that he’s the most omni-establishment person to ever run. He’s paid off everybody, everywhere, just to get his way. Because this isn’t about America this is about him.

When Trump supporters promise you he’s going to forever and immediately stop illegal immigration by “building the wall and force Mexico to pay for it” simply ask them how he has demonstrated that he can do it. Ask them also if they’ve studied his negotiation tactics and why he regularly uses huge lies to dislocate the conversation. But he doesn’t have to tell the truth because this isn’t about America, this is about him.

When the low-information start making spittle fly in their inability to come up with one policy position they have any detail on, remember this isn’t about America, it’s about him.

And when you point out that he’s the second most disliked person in the race behind only Hillary herself don’t be surprised if they bring themselves to call you X-rated names for female genitalia (a theme on his campaign evidently.) Just keep in mind that it’s not about America, it’s about him.

And shouldn’t thoughtful people come to expect the same when he appoints Supreme Court judges, argues for economic policy, or asks the government for favor in some situation where he could benefit by getting a piece of property?

We are not at the stage of a general election where the options are limited. There are several principled candidates to choose from. And the entire purpose of a primary process is to vet the best choice possible.

Because the Presidency can not be about any single personality but must always be about what is best for America!

Here we go again!

I’m scaring myself how close I’m getting with this stuff!

In 2006, fully two years before it happened and at least 12 months before anyone began to believe it, I predicted that Barack Obama would become President in 2008, and sworn in January 2009. Rush Limbaugh read my prediction on the air, the day after I wrote it at Townhall.com.

Last week in Iowa I said: Cruz would win by around 5, Rubio would surge, Donald would fade, and they’d fight it out for second place. Cruz won by 4, Rubio surged, Trump faded, and they finished one percentage point apart.

Yesterday: Final Poll–ARG–pre-NH-primary (morning of):

  1. Trump – 33
  2. Kasich – 17
  3. Rubio – 14
  4. Cruz – 10
  5. Bush – 9
  6. Christie – 8

My official prediction: “Trump wins but under performs, Cruz and Jeb over perform.”

Final Results:

  1. Trump – 35 (wins/but over performs)
  2. Kasich – 16
  3. Cruz – 12 (over performs)
  4. Bush – 11 (over performs)
  5. Rubio – 10
  6. Christie – 7

My general election prediction said from the beginning that Cruz would win Iowa, Trump would win New Hampshire, and that South Carolina will become a blood bath!

For the next two weeks, for civilized people, for my “friends” on social media, for the sake of the future, it’s about to get as ugly as it can get every 4 years.

I only pray that our republic can survive…

Pastors: Just F#$&ing VOTE Trump!

My mother said to me many times throughout my formative years, “The use of profanity is the sign of a poor vocabulary.”

Many more times she would remind me that we should think and fill our minds on “whatever things are pure.”

And maybe more times than those combined she would remind me that “Love is patient, Love is kind.” (Capitalized for emphasis because His Love is superior to all others!”

There are many reasons why every day Christians have no business voting for “Planned Parenthood’s Man Of The Year in 2015: Donald J. Trump.” But I can NOT fathom how believers who serve in public places of ministry (Pastors of huge mega-churches, Presidents of Christian Universities, Writers of Christian devotionals, Christian actors, and people who put any importance on work of genuine kingdom focus) can publicly encourage others to defy their consciences, and their knowledge of even the three admonitions at the beginning of this piece, and vote for a man who openly talks about others like this.

  
And hear me clearly. I’m not saying I’m perfect. I’m not saying I’ve never thought ungodly thoughts about our enemies. I’m not saying that my heart is ever 100% pure–though I desire it to be.

But this kind of vain vulgarity, in public, and taking those who are captive at his event to the equally profane places mentally is NOT something Christian ministry leaders should be advocating and patting on the back.

Christian leaders will be people that some will look to for rationale on who’s good and not good to vote for. And for Christian ministry leaders to automatically pick one of the worse options is anathema. 

It also seems to me that in order to do so, when equally strong candidates exist, here this early in a primary, is an abdication of prophetic influence, voice, and responsibility.

So pastors, presidents, writers, actors, who name the name of Christ I have but one question for you and for Mr. Trump.

What business has The Holy with the profane?

In Mr. Trump’s case I guess it’s just because he has such a weak vocabulary?

Why Iowa Was a Thrashing!

It’s a lot of fun to give people predictions and have them turn out to be correct.

Sometimes.

In 2006, before anyone else believed it, I predicted and Rush Limbaugh read my prediction on his show the following morning, that Barack Obama would be President in 2009.

Didn’t like being right on that one but seeing it all happen before it happened still have a shiver down me leg.

Last night was much more enjoyable.

More than a dozen times going into last night’s Iowa Caucus I was asked what I thought would happen.

I never believed the opinion polls that had Trump at 31% the day of the caucuses. Nevertheless everybody from Brit Hume, to Larry Kudlow, to Frank Luntz all predicted Trump had delivered the goods and was taking home the win.

Luntz even said so after hitting the ground in Iowa. And on my friend Mike Gallagher’s show predicted a late night, a close count, and likely a Trump win.

My very dear driend Dr Gina Loudon likewise also told me she expected a tight race and a late night.

I never actually believed it was all that close.

I predicted Cruz would win by around 5%, and that Trump would fade and Rubio surge and battle for 2nd place.

In reality Cruz won by 4% and Trump/Rubio had less than a percentage point between them.

In the aftermath it was obvious that Trump had been humbled, Rubio was inspired, and Cruz relieved. All were exactly appropriate reactions for how the biggest Iowa caucus in their history turned out.

There is also one other resounding message that came from the Iowa results.

THE ESTABLISHMENT GOT CRUSHED!

There is some debate about “who” IS the establishment. Everyone agrees Bush, Christie, Kasich are all “insiders.”

I would also argue Donald J Trump is as well. How else can you interpret his history of paying off politicians, hiring lobbyists, ginning the game of eminent domain, and in general having no political or moral compass until he declared as a candidate for President?

My theory is very much replicated in the endorsements of Bob Dole, and former Mitt Romney and John McCain staffers, etc.

So for my purposes I’ll include Trumps numbers in the following tally as “establishment” votes.

Trump, Bush, Christie, Kasich score 59,000+.

The non-establishment is made up of Tea Party, First Timers, and the Grassroots outcasts:

Cruz, Rubio, Paul are the Tea Partiers.

Carson and Fiorina are the first timers.

Huckabee and Santorum are the grassroots outcasts.

The anti-establishment vote score 129,000+.

IF you include Trump as anti-establishment the score is 13,000 to 155,000+.

Compare this singular unified message that the voters of Iowa are sending to the heavy handed hi-jinx and coin-flips of the other side, and this bodes very well for not just a winning GOP ticket come November, but an excited one, that has passion, and a base that’s ready to go to work for them to win!

Good winds are a blowing…

Why is Trump now losing?

I hear the words of the establishment coming out of Donald Trump supporters, just like I heard them from Mitt Romney supporters, and just like I heard them from John McCain supporters.

And of course I’ve heard them from Donald’s mouth personally.

“People should vote for me because I’m winning and I’m a winner,” he has continually said some semblance of over and over throughout his time on the trail.

He then cites a series of always national polls that show him leading in those polls that study opinion via calling people through landlines.

Ask yourself how many people do you know personally that have given up landlines.

When he declared he’d walk out of the debate this past week he sounded off as to his thoughts of how badly FoxNews would suffer in the ratings–because as Trump’s thinking went–he was the reason the debates had become so highly rated.

His assumption was calculating that when he left, the epic audience would as well.

His assumption further seemed to imply that his private event would outshine the debate.

And his assumption still asserted that being ahead in the polls in Iowa was enough to not have to work the state for the weekend–that he will merely jet into Des Moines Monday night, accept the win, and jet right back out again.

Well hold your ears and cover your eyes Tumpsters because you’re about to have a very bad few seconds followed by an awful couple of days.

Because Trump lost, is losing, and will lose.

Does that make him electable?

He lost the hearts and minds of Iowans. From the minute he declared he was out of the final debate Iowans couldn’t make it to enough microphones to tell networks how disappointed they were. Many of them saying they had been leaning Trump but were firmly against him now. I have publicly speculated for a couple of days now that with his free fall, less than optimum organization in Iowa, and a surging Rubio effort being led by that candidate, The Donald could fall to third on Monday Night.

He lost the debate. It was obvious the stage didn’t miss him and he was forced to absorb the things said on stage without any response.

He lost the opportunity to appear Presidential. The take my audience and go home mentality did not impress many.

He lost the ratings battle. FoxNews scored the second highest audience in their history. Numbers even higher than the debate from the previous week. Meanwhile Trump trying to co-opt past Iowa winners, pretend to be doing something for charity (though the checks were all written to the Trump Foundation, and no information has been revealed as to how much of the 5 million Donald’s own people put up), and garnering the cameras of all the other networks scored just less than 2 million viewers nationwide. Fox scored nearly seven times that number and had a monsterous 8.4 share for the night.

He is losing the public opinion in Iowa. His team is trying to show that slipping from an eleven point lead in public opinion to five points isn’t a loss. As of this morning the Des Moines register has that number just under 5 and a model that turns out voters in three times the numbers of the biggest turnout on record and counts on Evangelicals to stay home in higher numbers than in 2012. Neither of these things are going to happen.

He is losing in head to head matchups with Hillary. So his entire argument of “I don’t have to tell you my policy plans because I’m the one who can beat Hillary” is out the window.

Trump had already had his worst month of the campaign. He had an atrocious end of the month and did nothing but lose the final days of the final week.

He will be lucky to edge out Rubio in third place in Iowa at this point. And Teams Cruz and Rubio will raise lots of money and gain massive momentum heading into New Hampshire the following week.

The real downside about making your entire campaign about being a winner, is that in politics as in life, NOBODY wins everything–all the time.

And the question becomes what is your game plan when your are no longer the winner?

COUNTDOWN TO THE CAUCUS: Down to the wire…

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http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/82250280

It’s finally upon us. The final weekend before the official voting gets underway in the 2016 Election. On Monday voters will go to the polls for the first time that counts in the actual race. As of Monday night, we will have an actual front runner. We will have someone who is actually winning the race for delegates–as this year’s caucuses will actually be binding delegates for the Cleveland convention this summer.

All week long we spoke to the candidates. We issued invites for them to come and join us.

The conversations were serious and I believe helpful and contrasting in the minds of listeners and I also believe instructive on where the candidates and campaigns will take the country if elected.

I’ve decided to aggregate the entire week of conversations into a single post. Feel free to not only use it for yourself as a source of reference, but pass it on via social media to those in Iowa in particular who may yet not be decided on who they are at this point supporting.

Thanks to each of the campaigns for participating. Thanks to those who wished to but got to us too late.

I am praying for the outcome on Monday, that it will be good for our nation, and I’m sure you hope and maybe even pray the same.

Donald Hubris Trump

It was hard for me to grasp as someone who has been so deeply appreciative of how his candidacy has busted up the rules in the primary season–that he could allow these words to escape his lips.

But they did: I used to say something akin to this about the current resident of the White House.

“Barack Obama could have choked a baby, in Times Square, on National TV, with his bare hands and African Americans would’ve voted for him regardless.”

Oddly I was never challenged on that assertion. And I have many African Americans who listen to me daily.

So it should come as no surprise that if what people are referring to as the current GOP standard bearer (and I’m shuddering even thinking those words much less typing them) says the same thing–he better certainly be called out on it.

For as much as it was true of President Obama, and I’m certain he knew how true it was, he never would have said something so profane and insipid.

Trump has jumped the shark, and he simply can not be the standard bearer.

I don’t care how much money he has to put into his own race, you can not fix broken character.

And WHO would EVER think such a thought–much less utter it–in public?

Sadly it appears I’m in the minority. My very dear friend Dr. Gina Loudon and I had it out on last night’s final hour of the show.

To put it mildly–it got sparky:

Trumper Tantrums

He just couldn’t do it.

It betrays the dignity of a person’s manhood to be as insecure as one Donald Trump.

Earlier today he took to Twitter. (Something I would advise his staff to back away from immediately.) The tone, tactic, and general topics of what he tweets tends towards the inane.

He wants to be the leader of the free world but talks in tweets at a 3rd grade level.

Fresh off using Sarah Palin’s endorsement, gaining the SNL parodied cold open from it, and referring to Glenn Beck as a crying fool, he decided to return his sights to Megyn Kelly who will be one of the moderators this coming Thursday at the final debate before Iowa votes (and he will in all likelihood lose his very first test–after bragging about how he only wins:)

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Fox News responded calling him out as more or less a media con man attempting to boost his own ratings–so they thanked him. (Genius!)

But a thought crossed my mind in the process…

Not only does the man barely embody behavior that would emulate the dignity of being a President, but how can he stake a claim to being ready to take on the fierce enemies around the world when he whines to Roger Ailes about Megyn Kelly being too mean?

Seriously it’s almost like he’s acting like he can’t possibly BE the commander in chief and he’s just daring the voters to stop him…

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One more week and Iowans will prove someone right… But who… That remains the question.

The Pact With Palin

By the time it actually became news today it was already old.

Sarah Palin was going to endorse Trump.

Listeners to talk radio in New York were calling the Joe Piscopo Show during morning drive convinced it was going to happen.

On my way to the airport in NYC I heard news reports of a private plane leaving Anchorage and heading to Des Moines.

By midday a snarky Cruz staffer had posted a picture on Twitter that supposedly insulted Palin. The picture was Governor Palin standing next to Ted Cruz and the caption read “she knows how to pick winners.”

For some reason Bristol Palin took umbrage to it and went directly to her blog at Patheos and barked out a post about how mean Cruz was and she hoped her mom endorsed Trump just to spite him.

Very dignified Bristol, very dignified.

Then sometime between my take off in NYC and my connection in Phoenix Sarah Palin made it official, she’s throwing in with the Donald.

What he’s promised her, what it holds for her future, nobody knows, but Donald Trump believes he’s taken the final card out of the deck.

To in essence take a mentor of Cruz and to make her betray him, in Donald’s world, this is something he admires.

Color me unimpressed. Unimpressed with the Donald anyway.

Though these formerly conservative women do have me perplexed.

Phyllis Schlafly, Ann Coulter, and now Sarah Palin, I used to hold all of them in high regard.

I used to admire them for their unswerving devotion to truth, principle, and good.

I used to ponder how they found the courage to stand in the face of such reprehensible onslaught from the left for the duration of their careers.

But I guess truth doesn’t rank as high for them as it once did, principle is relegated to a sideshow, and truth?

How can they truthfully say that they are willing to fight the good fight and be used like pawns by one of the least principled men to ever rise?

Donald Trump might well become President, he might honestly believe the things he claims he does now. But for women who have spent their public lives and careers noting the inconsistencies of liberals, it seems that they are having a hard time recognizing one right in front of them.

So Ann, Sarah and Phyllis answer me these questions:

  1. Are you no longer pro-life?
  2. How can you support a candidate whose record on it is so spotty?
  3. Are you aware that the Donald was against a single payer health care system before he was for it?
  4. Do you honestly think Mr. Trump understands the Constitution?
  5. Do you just enjoy the rush it gives you for a man of that power to use you for his purposes?
  6. Do you honestly believe he will administrate the nation in the exact same fashion he has campaigned in?
  7. What about his formerly massive financial support to the Clintons?
  8. Is there anything related to his ability to flip-flop that bothers you-you ladies of unswerving devotion?

I’m not asking any of these questions as snark. Im genuine. Genuinely baffled at the lack of scruples you are showing in lending your voices to a man who has trouble explaining his way out of a paper bag.

And if you follow through with your support for him Ms. Coulter you owe a lot of genuine conservatives a LOT of apologies.

My only other thought on this is that I honestly believe none of you matter on this issue.

There is little evidence that Donald Trump has brought in ANY new voters into the Republican primary race.

And that means he is likely going to be disappointed on Caucus night in Iowa.

But not nearly as disappointed as I am in what you three have allowed to happen to your otherwise notable service to the conservative movement.

VIDEO: Bush & Carson What’s Next?

Each of them were believed to be the front runner at different points in this campaign. Are they now entering into “Hail Mary” territory?

My foil–Marjorie Clifton (@MarjorieClifton) and moi (@KMCRadio) discussed.

And we did it in 95 million households

**Reminder**: The opinions here are not of personal choice and may or may not reflect my own personal wishes as it pertains to candidates.

I am financially compensated for my analysis and as a professional it is important that I not allow my position in said analysis be tainted by bias for or against any of the candidates.

Video: Could Trump Win?

I was asked to offer up opinions and strategy on what 2016 is shaping up like. Specifically I was asked about the chances of primarily two candidates in the GOP field: Trump and Cruz.

While it is fun to get paid to provide analysis and commentary, I do not want listeners/readers misinterpreting my role.

I am sought out to render opinion about how actions impact the race, and whether or not they can beat the Dems a year from now.

So please don’t see any of my wording as endorsement! Analysis is never the same as who one is pulling for or against… And as I’ve repeatedly said in the primary race I will not be endorsing a candidate.